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GRAPE GRO WING and examples of how specific crops and livestock can be affected by higher tem- peratures and CO2 levels. Roth mentioned recent studies evaluating temperature increases on winegrape quality: A study released by Stanford University in June 2011 predicted that an increase of 2ºF by 2040 could reduce suitable acreage for growing premium wine cultivars in Napa County by 50%. In California, the agency's goals include quantifying the effects of GHG emissions and carbon sequestration on ag produc- tion, educating growers on adaptation strategies and developing climate change mitigation and adaptation tools and plans for agriculture. Water and drought issues Kamyar Guivetchi, manager of water planning with the California Depart- ment of Water Resources, explained that the Sierra snowpack is the state's largest surface water reservoir, with an annual average of 15 million acre-feet of water. A temperature increase of 5ºF could reduce the snowpack by 30%-40% by 2100. Because of groundwater overdraft, he said, the Central Valley—home to most of the state's ag land—is one of the most vul- nerable areas to climate change. "The past 100 years have been deficit spending with groundwater, and groundwater overdraft is a big problem, but it can be recover- able with proper water management," said Kamyar Guivetchi, the acting deputy director of Integrated Water Management. While he acknowledged the need to improve the state's water infrastructure and fix the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, he also highlighted the political problems posed by numerous agencies and interest groups fighting for water and moving large amounts of water long distances. Guivetchi said, "Regional water plan- ning and management is the way we need to go. A one-size-fits-all solution is not going to work in California on a statewide level." Part of his job is to oversee the California Water Plan Update 2013. He promoted the need to expand integrated regional water management and noted that 48 regional groups have formed throughout the state to integrate all aspects of local water management and help reduce flood risk in ways that will also better manage water storage. "CDFA and the board can help by encouraging farmers to be involved in the 48 regional water-management groups to help integrate tools, data and resources, be more creative in capturing storm water and increase regional self-sufficiency," Guivetchi said. Dr. Glen MacDonald of the Institute on Environment and Sustainability at "Farmers don't seem to be as concerned about extreme weather events— perhaps because they have to deal with them regularly." —Dr. Louise Jackson, UC Davis the University of California, Los Angeles, drilled in on drought. Historical weather patterns show that wide-scale drought conditions lasting 3 to 5 years occur pe- riodically in California. The last occurred at the beginning of this century. MacDonald said, "We cannot defini- tively attribute the 21st century drought to increases in GHG emissions, but if temperature increase trends continue, their effects could amplify drought conditions by the middle of this century." He warned potential drought conditions similar to the 1930s Dust Bowl could persist for a period of up to 12 years by mid-century. There is historic evidence of even more severe droughts. MacDonald said the 12th century drought, from about 1130 to 1180 over most of what is now the southwestern U.S., resulted in a long pe- riod of low water flows in the Colorado and Sacramento River systems. Ag and grower perspectives Board members and speakers raised the issue that many farmers—perhaps ex- ceeding 40%—are still non-believers in climate change. Board member Donald Bransford, an almond and rice grower, observed, "Some work needs to be done in educating the farm community about climate change, because many don't ac- cept it." He added, "Climate change will be gradual, and there will be adaptation, if you take into account that new variet- ies and cultivars are being developed that can be used." Daniel Sumner, of the University of California, Davis, Agricultural Issues QSEE US AT UNIFIED, BOOTH #1904 Wines & Vines JAnUARY 2012 101