Issue link: http://winesandvines.uberflip.com/i/766392
160 WINES&VINES January 2017 BUSINESS PRACTICAL WINERY & VINEYARD and shift to make the business more ex- pensive. Mechanization will fill in the gaps. It will be a massive transformation. Much faster and more aggressive than I would have expected." " Grape supply, especially in the premium areas of the state, is going to become more of an issue. Ten years from now es- pecially grape supply. These guys that are buying labels without vineyards; Meiomi and Prisoner-type thing." " Grape supply continues to get tighter. There are no significant new plantings that are going to alleviate that issue. The price of grapes keeps going up and up, so we continue to see margin compression." " The changing face of the industry. I see some of the same faces in the crowd and I wonder when they are going to start changing. They are starting to change a little bit—the Joe Wagners of the world, who started in his early 30s. We must an- ticipate and look to those who will be really good mentors for the next generation." " There is a bit of a resurgence of neo-Pro- hibitionism. Sometimes it comes up here and there and whether that grows or not is hard to say. There is talk about wine air- locks on vehicles. If the legal blood alco- hol content (BAC) goes down to 0.05, as some would like to do, it will make it much more difficult for a couple to go out and have a bottle—in fact almost prohibitive." " Look what is happening in Europe today with the growing Islamic population. Over the next 10 years it may begin to affect wineries and vineyards in Europe. It is something to think about. We don't have the answer to that. More doctors will write more articles about the health benefits of drinking in moderation." " The U.S. consumer demographic will con- tinue to change and dictate innovation and marketing. For example, the Hispanic population in the United States is ex- pected to grow by 14.8 million over the next 10 years. Hispanics are responsible for half of the growth in the total alcohol beverage category since 2010." " One big thing will be ingredient labeling, which is kind of being talked about now, and pollution and its effect on the environ- ment. I can envision 10 years from now that ETS Laboratories may have tests for arsenic, car exhaust, etc." " Another thing may be interesting to ob- serve over the next 10 years is the impact of other controlled substances on the in- dustry—specifically legalization of mari- juana. But right now we don't see any impact." " There will be an evolution in how alcohol is distributed that will render obsolete some of the laws and regulations we have today. Cannabis will most likely be legalized within the next 10 years. It will be interesting to see the impact that will have on the wine business and how those intoxicants are leg- islated. But overall we are optimistic that the wine business will continue to flourish. If you look at our consumption patterns, we are still in the early innings of a consump- tion category that is going to mature over a long period of time." Robert Smiley, Ph.D., is the director of wine studies, dean and professor of management emeritus at the University of California, Davis. Nicholas Simmons is a graduate research assistant in the Department of Viti- culture & Enology at UC Davis. Toll-Free: 877-552-4828 909-464-1373 • Fax: 909-464-1603 www.agfast.com For your nearest dealer, contact: WIREVISE® Trellis & Fence Wire Anchor This trellis and fence wire anchor securely holds wires to end-posts. Insert the wire into and through the wirevise. It automatically locks onto the wire. No tools required. To tighten, just pull more wire through the vise. A release tool is available from AgFast for 12- 16 gauge wire. WireVise AD.qxp_Layout 1 11/29/16 11:50 AM Pag