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20 WINES&VINES November 2018 I n a session held in Napa, Calif., on Sept. 25, the first day of the two-day Wine In- dustry Financial Symposium that drew more than 300 people, Steve Fredricks, the president of Novato, Calif.-based Turrentine Brokerage, and the company's North Coast grape broker, Mike Needham, delivered a pre- sentation on the grape and wine market. Some of the key trends the two noted as indicating a changing market were case sales slowing, traditional buyers have become sellers and bulk wine volumes have been building. "We're moving into a transition in the market," Fredricks said, referencing the company's "Wine Business Wheel of Fortune" that appears to be shifting toward a long market. This change could come even quicker as 2018 appears to be a large harvest. Pinot Noir and Chardonnay are coming in larger than expected throughout California. Barring any extreme weather, the 2018 harvest should bring significant Cabernet tonnage, especially since 2011 bearing acreage in the Lodi and Paso Robles appellations, Lake and Mendocino counties and Washington state has increased by 50% to 60,000 acres in those regions. Plentiful Cabernet and lower prices should provide additional opportunities in the market as Fredricks said many private label companies, negociants and wineries looking to develop new brands will have more options in terms of supply and prices. "It's always been a great market of opportunity," Fredricks said of an excess market. "There's not all bad news but good news too." Another trend seen across California has been a shift in supply for premium red blends. In 2014, California wineries crushed 118,000 tons of blenders that included Petit Verdot, Petite Sirah and Malbec. In 2017 the tonnage for all those varieties had increased but Terol- dego's share of the blender category had risen from essentially zero in 2014 to 6% at more than 11,000 tons. The success of these blends in the retail market has not translated to increased demand for Zinfandel and Merlot, both of which con- tinue to see a weak market. Many wineries have "cannibalized" their Zinfandel programs to support the growth of blends. Fredricks added that a big crop in 2018 will only further weaken the market for Zinfandel and more acreage, particularly wire-trained Zin in the Lodi appellation, could be removed. The current rosé boom has not helped Zin- fandel despite the efforts of some wineries, Fredricks said, and has instead driven new de- mand for Grenache and Syrah. He said based on domestic sales and the strength of imports, robust rosé sales may not be a fad. "This pre- mium rosé trend may be a little different and stay for the long term," he said. "One caution is we don't need to plant new vineyards for rosé." —Andrew Adams Wine and Grape Market May be Headed for Change "This premium rosé trend may be a little different and stay for the long term. One caution is we don't need to plant new vineyards for rosé." –Steve Fredricks, Turrentine Brokerage WINE INDUSTRY NEWS