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WINEMAKING plore a serious holistic winemaking system. Nor do I possess the credentials to perform a significant body of publishable research. It interests me to take on something nobody else is doing. My col- umns are in part love letters from the edge, written to enologists who may choose to play with them by applying scientific rigor to the hypotheses I've dragged back from the jungle. In a nutshell Discovery thus divides naturally into three sequential realms that require very different skills and temperaments. Phase I—Exploration, Observation and Characterization of New Phenomena: The Explorer mentality is creative, non-judg- mental and even unhinged. Substantial resources are put at risk. Players are often not trained scientists, but detailed records of ob- servations are highly valuable. Phase II—Construction of Hypothetical Predictive Models: Dogmas, old wives' tales, apparent patterns and beliefs are trans- lated into testable hypotheses that saner minds might examine. Requires fluency in the languages of the explorer and the experi- mental scientist, while slave to neither. Phase III—The Scientific Method: Employs conventions of verification to test hypotheses, often by comparing double-blind randomized models against observed data. Exclusively the domain of the skeptical, meticulous, professionally trained scientist. Now the bad news: Hypothesis testing is not a dependable tool. Most scientific work is oriented toward preventing confirma- tion of incorrect hypotheses (Type One errors), and "significant" findings must meet the standard of avoiding false confirmation 95% of the time. The tighter this standard, the more probable that real effects are missed.5 SeparatorTechSolns_Dir11.qxp 11/19/10 9:52 AM Page 1 References 1. Bottling of table wines containing fermentable sugars requires sterile filters that can be tested for integrity through a procedure called "bubble- pointing." Nuclepore produced the first bubble-pointable filters in the 1950s by etching plastic sheets that had been exposed to alpha emissions in nuclear reactors. Prior to World War II, off-dry table wines did not exist except for those stabilized by funny-tasting chemicals or cooked by hot- bottling, neither of which hit the big time. 2. winecrimes.com/winecrimes/UC_deliciousness.pdf 3. "Phenolic Chemistry and Winemaking," Wines & Vines, April 2011. 4. "Tales of a Shaman's Apprentice," Penguin Books (1993). 5. Siegfried, Tom, "Odds Are It's Wrong," Science News, March 27, 2010. 6. Gil Scott-Heron youtube.com/watch?v=BS3QOtbW4m0 It is not uncommon that the chances of missing a real effect (Type Two error) run 90%. This means that today's science misses all but the most obvious effects. Fahgettaboudit. Faced with these uncertainties, most of the time winemakers just go with what feels right. Then, long before academia can provide useful answers, the market decides the win- ners. This is the same method through which genetic designs are naturally selected and species are improved. Nature just goes with what works. Science plays no important active role and mostly just attempts to report what happened. I'm doing what I can to stimulate interaction between our precious lunatics and our intrepid scientists. But by and large, it's likely that the postmodern winemaking revolution will not be televised.6 Clark Smith is winemaker for WineSmith and founder of the wine technology firm Vinovation. He lectures widely on an ancient yet innova- tive view of American winemaking. Separator Technology Solutions High performance... without the high price Separator Technology Solutions US Inc. Ashley Whittington STS 200 As installed at: Fetzer, J Lohr, Monterey Wine Co, Blackstone, Clos du Bois & Hogue Phone: +1 559 253 3699 E-mail: info@sts200.com www.sts200.com Wines & Vines nOVeMBeR 2011 107