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70 P R A C T I C A L W I N E R Y & V I N E YA R D April 2015 B O O K E X C E R P T these extremes brought down flourish- ing civilizations that, the archaeological records show, all but disappeared as their agricultural bases withered. The scattered native peoples that were able to persist during these prolonged dry spells in the American West were also hard-hit by extreme floods, so they had to develop coping strategies. One key to their success was an intimate knowledge of their environment and its resources. Another was the size of their population: They survived by living in small, flex- ible groups, able to mobilize rapidly and relocate as conditions dictated. The hardships suffered by these early human inhabitants of the West provide important lessons. For instance, during extended periods of abundant moisture, societies that grew rapidly were left vul- nerable to collapse when the climate inevitably turned dry again. Modern society in the West has followed a similar path: After a century of fairly abundant moisture, the population in this region has exploded. Modern engineering has allowed the exploitation of all available water sources for human use, and water policy has favored water development for power, cities and farms over sus- tainability of the environment and eco- systems. These policies have allowed populations to grow right up to, and per- haps beyond, the limits that this region can support, leaving it vulnerable should drier conditions return. In this respect, today's society in the West resembles the ancestral Pueblo of the twelfth century — both living beyond their means. Paleoclimate records also reveal that the lack of prolonged droughts during the past 150 years is an aberration. In the past two millennia, such droughts, some of which lasted several decades, occurred at intervals of every 50 to 90 years. The longest droughts experienced by the West over the past century — last- ing about six years — are meager by com- parison. Certainly, however, as discussed in chapters 1 and 3, these relatively short droughts brought extreme hardship to the region. Climate scientists have discovered a new complication in the West. In addi- tion to that region's variable climate, sci- entists agree that a warming trend has been superimposed on it — a trend that began a few decades ago and is likely caused by a rapid increase in carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere. The American West appears to be facing a potential climatic double-whammy: a cyclical return of the drier conditions and a new greenhouse gas–induced warming. Although we do not know exactly what kind of weather this combination will produce, climate models indicate that global warming will compound natural climate cycles and that a warming world will likely make the extreme events, particularly floods and droughts, even larger and more fre- quent. Floods The paleoclimate records suggest that the West has experienced far worse floods, at regular intervals, than the We like to think that Vintage Nurseries does many things well, but listening to our grower partners is the one that makes us proudest. In fact, it's the reason we've committed to invest millions of dollars for facility upgrades, improved procedures, and innovations to beneft the industry as a whole. You'd be amazed at all of the improvements from our newly improved grafting facility with temperature control and sterilization upgrades to quality control, production and customer service…the result of talking to growers like you. So check out the "new" Vintage Nurseries, where our success is built around the promise of your success. WASCO 661-758-4777 PASO ROBLES 805-237-8914 SANTA ROSA 707-542-5510 TOLL FREE 800-499-9019 www.Vintagenurseries.com serVing the wine, table grape and raisin industries "Growers First" Isn't Just A Slogan, It's A Promise. See All That The "New" Vintage Is Doing For You Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta levee break in June 2004, which flooded a 12,000-acre island in the delta. PHOTO COURTESY OF THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES