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74 P R A C T I C A L W I N E R Y & V I N E YA R D April 2015 B O O K E X C E R P T nario suggests that one-quarter of all homes in California would be destroyed, and an estimated 1.5 million residents would be forced to evacuate the Central Valley and the San Francisco Bay delta. The total cost to California in this sce- nario, including business interruption and property repair costs, could reach $725 billion, which is three times the esti- mated cost of a large Southern California earthquake. The U.S. Geological Survey considers this extreme storm scenario to be the next disaster waiting to hap- pen—even more catastrophic than the next big earthquake predicted to strike the region. The ARkStorm team has raised public policy questions, including whether to fund emergency prepared- ness and atmospheric river–prediction studies, and it recommends that steps to mitigate the impacts of this scenario should begin immediately to prevent catastrophic loss of life and property. We now have the ability, as a society, to understand climate and forecast weather. We also have deeper insights into the impacts of extreme climate events on our world. It is time for individuals and society to change our behavior in order to mitigate the effects of these events. One important step would be to allow our floodplains, marshes and deltas to resume their natural functions. Each year, the oceans rise higher, and some scientists suggest that the best protection from the dangerous combination of ris- ing sea levels and extreme storms is what nature has already provided but we have nearly eliminated: tidal wetlands. In California before the Gold Rush, for example, the San Francisco Bay delta was surrounded by 849 square miles of tidal wetlands. Not only did these wetlands provide unique habitats for millions of migrating and resident birds, mammals and fish, but the lush vegetation also slowed storm-driven waves, dissipating their energy. Today, only about 48 square miles of the wetlands remain, and these remnants are among the most threatened ecosystems in the state. An urgent ques- tion is whether these marshes can keep pace with the rising sea. The sediments delivered to the marshes may prove inadequate to keep the surface above water, and the marshes may no longer have the option to retreat landward, as they are now completely surrounded by urban sprawl. Taking a "no regrets" approach Most water experts urge policymakers in the West to begin taking action imme- diately to prepare for both ends of the climate spectrum facing the region: drier conditions and decreased water avail- ability interspersed with longer storm seasons leading to larger and more fre- quent floods. Although it is not yet clear to what degree the drought conditions in the West over the past decade have been the result of natural or of human causes, climate experts are recommending that society begin to prepare early for the coming changes. Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall at the University of Arizona advise sci- entists and policymakers who are cur- rently discussing strategies for adapting to climate change that they need to include the possibility that the West could enter into another megadrought like the ones discussed in earlier chap- ters of this book. Their "no regrets" approach includes adapting to overall reductions in water and preparing to live in a landscape that may be trans- formed by the other impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise, greater flooding, more frequent wildfires and ecosystem shifts. This "no regrets" approach is wise and conservative. However, it is dif- JOIN NOW AND SAVE! Member registration fees are signifcantly lower than non-member fees. Apply online! 66 n a t i o n a l c o n f e r e n c e s i x t y s i x t h s c i e n c e a p l a t f o r m f o r p r o g r e s s June 15–19, 2015 Portland Marriott Downtown Hotel Portland, Oregon USA S P E c I A l E V E N t S • Merit Award Presentation — Mr. E.B. "Pete" Downs, Consulting Enologist and Retired Senior VP for External Affairs, Kendall-Jackson, California • Extension Distinction Award Presentation • 2nd International Symposium on Nitrogen in Grapes and Wine • Tour of Columbia Gorge and Wineries • Research Reports (submitted through Call for Abstracts) • Oregon Regional Wine Reception • Industry Seminars • Outreach Seminar • Supplier Displays • Student Flash Talks 66th ASEV National Conference Visit our website for updates on the 2015 program. www.asev.org | 530-753-3142 American Society for Enology and Viticulture