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40 W i n e s & V i n e s O C T O b e r 2 0 1 4 counterfeiting technology. It is therefore necessary not only to create new marketing links using the most up-to-date anti-coun- terfeiting technologies, but also to protect the producer's brand and image by creating, as specified by Chateau Latour, "a trust- based relationship with the consumer." Indeed, a number of articles and observ- ers emphasize the importance of putting together an information campaign with the consumer, who will increasingly become the best defense against counterfeiting. This direct contact with the consumer, which is now even more strategic, appears to have a dual advantage: • In developed countries it may allow use- ful marketing feedback to be obtained. Furthermore, consumers increasingly want interactive relationships with and proximity to their favorite brands—par- ticularly using their smartphones. • In countries such as China, direct con- tact with the consumer also enables the latter to be reassured about the au- thenticity of the product. This phenom- enon is also evident in countries such as Russia, where only 7% of Russians are satisfied with the protection pro- vided by the Russian state against the circulation of illegal alcohol, according to a 2012 report by Philippe Collier, publisher of Contrefaçon Riposte. on the other hand, in China many of the players in the sector (importers, dis- tributors, restaurants, etc.) are new and not always able to protect the supply chain as required, and therefore contact with the consumer is an option that is both robust and effective. on a more global level, using an anti-counterfeiting technology also enables a company to po- sition itself as an innovative leader, send- ing a message to players in the market. Business outlook According to a recent note by the McKin- sey firm, the world of tomorrow will be connected and volatile in the long term. The consequences of such an evolution will be that the counterfeiting environ- ment will become increasingly fragmented and complex, and businesses will have more and more difficulties in overcom- ing—alone—the surrounding risks of counterfeiting. Forward-looking business practices may see commerce and e-com- merce come together. In 2020, the mobile phone will be more central to e-commerce than it is today, but having a "physical" network could well still be essential. The integration of digital technologies with more "physical" ones will be a stra- tegic factor in current anti-counterfeiting technologies—and especially in future ap- plications. The spirits sector—and espe- cially the fine wines sector—must there- fore take this trend into account even more and become involved in this evolu- tion, which is not just about anti-counter- feiting measures, but relates more gener- ally to protecting their production. As is often the case for this type of innovation, the cost will come down as the procedure becomes more widely marketed. The final prediction is that anti-coun- terfeiting technologies will become in- creasingly strategic for businesses, given that ABC12.com in Flint, Mich., states the market in food and pharmaceuticals is ex- pected to increase from $57.4 billion to $142.7 billion in 2020. China is expected to remain a strategic area for this prob- lem, since alcohol sales are predicted to increase in value by more than 10% per year until 2017, according to the China Food & Drink Report. Conclusion At the end of this study, we are surprised by the lack of analysis regarding the scale of the problem. Unlike the majority of business sectors, even the customs statis- tics targeted at the wine sector are not ac- cessible. It would therefore be useful to encourage international institutions (WCo, european Union, American, French and Chinese customs authorities, etc.) to publish more detailed statistics concerning wines and spirits in order to allow the comparison of seizure trends over time and by location. More detailed analysis of counterfeiting—especially in europe, the United States and above all in China—also are expected to be initiated on certain subjects such as the Internet and counterfeiting techniques and trends. Wine producers have responded empiri- cally in such circumstances. For a number of years the anti-counterfeiting campaign may have been perceived with alarm, be- cause it was felt that drawing attention to the issue would worry consumers and the players in the wine supply chain. Yet the increase in the problem, particularly in China, has forced producers to respond. The initiatives nevertheless seem to be dispersed and fragmented and would ben- efit from identifying a greater number of synergies. Moreover, certain players seem to be more cutting-edge, such as the Bor- deaux Grand Crus or certain spirits. When it comes to combating the coun- terfeiting problem, security technologies appear to be the best option in such a vol- atile environment, where commercial flows have become more numerous and difficult to control, particularly on Chi- nese territory. If, as we have shown, a choice of technology is always associated with specific problems, at the end of our analysis it would appear that the NFC so- lution ought to take off rapidly in the wine sector—particularly in the high-end segment. This technology is effectively part of a logical evolution in digitization in the industrial environment and also on a smaller scale. NFC solutions put the consumer at the heart of the device as the de facto expert on the product and oblige producers to imagine and develop new bonds of trust with consumers. Finally, at the more organizational level, the choice of such a technology, which has wider logistical and marketing issues, also requires the fulfillment of a certain number of conditions (importance of ser- vice and of advising the supplier, compli- ance with standards, digital culture of the wines or spirits producer, etc.) in order to maximize the broad potential of this new environment, which should mobilize ev- eryone involved in the business. Eric Przyswa, consultant and associ- ate researcher at Mines ParisTech at the Centre for Research on Risks and Crises, conducts research in the area of human security in industrial environments. He also acts as a consultant in this field to institutions and businesses. His works has appeared in academic journals in France and abroad. C urrently there is a strong trend to place the consumer at the center of the anti-counterfeiting device by enabling him to check the authenticity of the product he is purchasing using a smartphone. p a c k a g i n g